Post by account_disabled on Mar 6, 2024 3:44:32 GMT
The to tell from the graph at the beginning of this post. Analyzing an irregular time series where both the period between spikes and intensity of those spikes changes takes some very hairy math so I decided to start a little simpler. I started by assuming that a regular pattern was present and looking for a way to remove some of the noise based on that assumption. The simplest analysis that yielded results involved taking a day moving average and calculating the Mean Standard Error MSE.
In other words for every temperature each temperature is a single day Greece Mobile Number List take the mean of that day and the day on either side of it a day window and square the difference between that days temperature and the day mean. This exaggerates standalone peaks and smooths some of the noisier sequences resulting in the following graph This post was inspired in part by February which showed an unusually high signaltonoise ratio. So lets zoom in on just the last days of the graph See peaks starting on January The space between them respectively is days days days and days.
Then theres a week gap to the next smaller spike March and another days to the one after that. While this is hardly proof of a clear regular pattern its hard to believe the weekly pacing is entirely a coincidence given what we know about the algorithm update approval process. This pattern is less clear in other months and Im not suggesting that a weekly update cycle is the whole picture. We know Google also does large data refreshes including Penguin and sometimes rolls updates out over multiple days or even weeks. in April the first part of the month MSE graph. Its also interesting to note the activity levels around Christmas Despite all of our conspiracy theories there really did seem.
In other words for every temperature each temperature is a single day Greece Mobile Number List take the mean of that day and the day on either side of it a day window and square the difference between that days temperature and the day mean. This exaggerates standalone peaks and smooths some of the noisier sequences resulting in the following graph This post was inspired in part by February which showed an unusually high signaltonoise ratio. So lets zoom in on just the last days of the graph See peaks starting on January The space between them respectively is days days days and days.
Then theres a week gap to the next smaller spike March and another days to the one after that. While this is hardly proof of a clear regular pattern its hard to believe the weekly pacing is entirely a coincidence given what we know about the algorithm update approval process. This pattern is less clear in other months and Im not suggesting that a weekly update cycle is the whole picture. We know Google also does large data refreshes including Penguin and sometimes rolls updates out over multiple days or even weeks. in April the first part of the month MSE graph. Its also interesting to note the activity levels around Christmas Despite all of our conspiracy theories there really did seem.